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Belgium U23 W vs Netherlands U23 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Belgium U23 W
Belgium U23 W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Netherlands U23 W
Netherlands U23 W
10/27/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Belgium U23 W25%
×Draw28%
Netherlands U23 W47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgium U23 W
0.88
Netherlands U23 W
1.33

Netherlands U23 W creates 51% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Belgium U23 W
0.75
Netherlands U23 W
1.67

allows per match

Belgium U23 W
1.00
Netherlands U23 W
1.00

finishing

Belgium U23 W+0.00on par
Netherlands U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium U23 W ↓

Netherlands U23 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Belgium U23 W or draw
53%
Belgium U23 W or Netherlands U23 W
72%
Draw or Netherlands U23 W
75%

Winning margin

Belgium U23 W wins by 2+
8%
Netherlands U23 W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Belgium U23 W 1+ goals
59%
Belgium U23 W 2+ goals
22%
Belgium U23 W 3+ goals
6%
Netherlands U23 W 1+ goals
74%
Netherlands U23 W 2+ goals
38%
Netherlands U23 W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Belgium U23 W (draw refunded)
34%
Netherlands U23 W (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium U23 W at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Netherlands U23 W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium U23 W attack 0.75 + Netherlands U23 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Netherlands U23 W attack 1.67 + Belgium U23 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Belgium U23 W scores more
25%
level
28%
Netherlands U23 W scores more
47%

Netherlands U23 W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Netherlands U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Belgium U23 W 0–0 Netherlands U23 W

Belgium U23 W and Netherlands U23 W drew 0-0 in Friendlies Women on October 27, 2025.