Belgium U19 W 2–1 Norway U19 W: Result & Stats

Belgium U19 W

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Norway U19 W

M. Baert 16'

E. Spelkens 1'

A. Kerim-Lindland 55'

10/27/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Belgium U19 W46%

×Draw27%

Norway U19 W27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgium U19 WExpected goals in this matchNorway U19 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.00

Belgium U19 W

1.38

Norway U19 W

1.00

Belgium U19 W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Belgium U19 W

1.00

Norway U19 W

1.00

allows per match

Belgium U19 W

1.00

Norway U19 W

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgium U19 W+0.00on par

Norway U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium U19 W ↓

Norway U19 W →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Belgium U19 W or draw

73%

Belgium U19 W or Norway U19 W

73%

Draw or Norway U19 W

54%

Winning margin

Belgium U19 W wins by 2+

22%

Norway U19 W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Belgium U19 W 1+ goals

75%

Belgium U19 W 2+ goals

40%

Belgium U19 W 3+ goals

16%

Norway U19 W 1+ goals

63%

Norway U19 W 2+ goals

26%

Norway U19 W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Belgium U19 W (draw refunded)

63%

Norway U19 W (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Belgium U19 W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Norway U19 W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Belgium U19 W attack 1.00 + Norway U19 W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Norway U19 W attack 1.00 + Belgium U19 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Belgium U19 W scores more

46%

level

27%

Norway U19 W scores more

27%

Belgium U19 W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Belgium U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

E. Spelkens

16'

M. Baert

55'

A. Kerim-Lindland

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff