Belgium U19 3–2 Netherlands U19: Result & Stats

Belgium U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Netherlands U19

A. Sishuba 83'

K. Corbanie 57'

A. Piedfort 45+6'

J. Slory 69'

J. van Duiven 40'

3/26/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 5Gjaltema Stadion aan De Langeleegte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Belgium U1924%

×Draw22%

Netherlands U1954%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgium U19Expected goals in this matchNetherlands U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.92

Belgium U19

1.22

Netherlands U19

1.92

Netherlands U19 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

1.83

creates per match

2.90

0.94

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Belgium U19

1.83

Netherlands U19

2.90

allows per match

Belgium U19

0.94

Netherlands U19

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgium U19+0.00on par

Netherlands U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium U19 ↓

Netherlands U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Belgium U19 or draw

46%

Belgium U19 or Netherlands U19

78%

Draw or Netherlands U19

76%

Winning margin

Belgium U19 wins by 2+

10%

Netherlands U19 wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Belgium U19 1+ goals

70%

Belgium U19 2+ goals

34%

Belgium U19 3+ goals

12%

Netherlands U19 1+ goals

85%

Netherlands U19 2+ goals

57%

Netherlands U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Belgium U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Netherlands U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium U19 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Netherlands U19 away — creates 2.90, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium U19 attack 1.83 + Netherlands U19 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.22

Netherlands U19 attack 2.90 + Belgium U19 defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Belgium U19 scores more

24%

level

22%

Netherlands U19 scores more

54%

Netherlands U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Netherlands U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

36'

40'

45+1'

45+4'

45+6'

46'

46'

E. van de Blaak← O. Agougil

53'

J. Addai← I. Babadi

53'

J. Esajas← M. Kleijn

53'

J. van de Haar← T. Blokzijl

56'

T. Land

57'

K. Corbanie← K. Sabbe

57'

T. De Vlieger← M. Fernandez-Pardo

57'

59'

62'

67'

69'

70'

76'

78'

83'

90+5'

L. Montegnies← A. Van Himbeeck

Belgium

Netherlands

16

Kuijsten

4

▼

Blokzijl

14

▼

Agougil

11

▼

Babadi

15

▼

21

18

2

8

7

⚽

▼

Slory

9

⚽

Duiven

1

Penders

13

▼

Sabbe

3

▼

Noubi

14

⚽

Piedfort

15

Monamay

5

Burlet

10

⚽

Sishuba

8

▼

Himbeeck

19

▼

Greef

7

▼

Fernandez

9

Soelle

Manager: W. Sonck

46'▲J. Kongolo←▼L. Noubi

57'▲K. Corbanie←▼K. Sabbe

57'▲T. De Vlieger←▼M. Fernandez-Pardo

70'▲J. Seys←▼T. De Greef

90+5'▲L. Montegnies←▼A. Van Himbeeck

Belgium U19 substitutes

4Kongolo2Corbanie17Vlieger16Seys6Montegnies12Dobbels11Monticelli18Tytens

Manager: M. Visser

46'▲E. van de Blaak←▼O. Agougil

53'▲J. Addai←▼I. Babadi

53'▲J. Esajas←▼M. Kleijn

53'▲J. van de Haar←▼T. Blokzijl

76'▲E. Banzuzi←▼J. Slory

Netherlands U19 substitutes

3Blaak17Addai5Esajas19Haar20Banzuzi10Rijkhoff1Steur6Vos

Match Recap: Belgium U19 vs Netherlands U19

Belgium U19 beat Netherlands U19 3-2 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 26, 2024.

Goals: J. van Duiven (40'), A. Piedfort (45+6'), K. Corbanie (57'), J. Slory (69'), A. Sishuba (83').

The match was played at Gjaltema Stadion aan De Langeleegte in Veendam.

Belgium U19 vs Netherlands U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Belgium U19 vs Netherlands U19