Belgium U19 5–1 Luxembourg U19: Result & Stats

Belgium U19

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Luxembourg U19

C. Sandra 71', 36', 25'

A. Descotte 47'

L. Oyen 40'

L. Elshan 68'

11/13/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 7Stade am Petz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Belgium U1957%

×Draw22%

Luxembourg U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgium U19Expected goals in this matchLuxembourg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.03

Belgium U19

1.89

Luxembourg U19

1.03

Belgium U19 creates 83% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

1.83

creates per match

1.13

0.94

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Belgium U19

1.83

Luxembourg U19

1.13

allows per match

Belgium U19

0.94

Luxembourg U19

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgium U19+0.00on par

Luxembourg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium U19 ↓

Luxembourg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Belgium U19 or draw

80%

Belgium U19 or Luxembourg U19

78%

Draw or Luxembourg U19

43%

Winning margin

Belgium U19 wins by 2+

33%

Luxembourg U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Belgium U19 1+ goals

85%

Belgium U19 2+ goals

56%

Belgium U19 3+ goals

29%

Luxembourg U19 1+ goals

64%

Luxembourg U19 2+ goals

28%

Luxembourg U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Belgium U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Luxembourg U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium U19 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Luxembourg U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium U19 attack 1.83 + Luxembourg U19 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.89

Luxembourg U19 attack 1.13 + Belgium U19 defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Belgium U19 scores more

57%

level

22%

Luxembourg U19 scores more

20%

Belgium U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Belgium U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

36'

40'

47'

55'

A. Abid← L. Oyen

55'

B. Lagae← R. Lavia

61'

A. Calut← T. Rommens

64'

L. Figueiredo← C. Baiverlin

67'

R. Mateus← N. Rossler

68'

L. Elshan

71'

C. Sandra

72'

N. De Wilde← C. Sandra

72'

N. Ngoy← M. Wasinski

81'

M. Fernandes← D. Monteiro de Oliveira

81'

S. Turping← L. Elshan

Belgium

Luxembourg

1

5

4

2

6

▼

Baiverlin

10

Berberi

8

▼

Oliveira

7

▼

Rossler

3

Sinner

9

⚽

▼

Elshan

11

Jonathans

1

Chambaere

5

▼

Rommens

3

Debast

14

▼

Wasinski

18

Mbamba-Mu

10

⚽

▼

Oyen

11

Audoor

21

Engels

8

⚽3

▼

Sandra

6

▼

Lavia

19

⚽

Descotte

Manager: W. Sonck

55'▲A. Abid←▼L. Oyen

55'▲B. Lagae←▼R. Lavia

61'▲A. Calut←▼T. Rommens

72'▲N. De Wilde←▼C. Sandra

72'▲N. Ngoy←▼M. Wasinski

Belgium U19 substitutes

15Abid4Lagae20Calut16Wilde2Ngoy7Bakayoko12Boets17Mondele9Stroeykens

Manager: M. Cardoni

64'▲L. Figueiredo←▼C. Baiverlin

67'▲R. Mateus←▼N. Rossler

81'▲M. Fernandes←▼D. Monteiro de Oliveira

81'▲S. Turping←▼L. Elshan

Luxembourg U19 substitutes

13Figueiredo14Mateus19Fernandes16Turping15Antunes17Araujo12Scheidweiler20Klisurica18Nennig

Match Recap: Belgium U19 vs Luxembourg U19

Belgium U19 beat Luxembourg U19 5-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 13, 2021.

Goals: C. Sandra (25', 36', 71'), L. Oyen (40'), A. Descotte (47'), L. Elshan (68').

The match was played at Stade am Petz in Weidingen.

Belgium U19 vs Luxembourg U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Belgium U19 vs Luxembourg U19