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Belgium U19 vs Lithuania U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Belgium U19
Belgium U19
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lithuania U19
Lithuania U19
11/16/2024UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5Stadion Beroe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Belgium U1961%
×Draw22%
Lithuania U1917%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgium U19
1.84
Lithuania U19
0.85

Belgium U19 creates 116% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

creates per match

Belgium U19
1.83
Lithuania U19
0.77

allows per match

Belgium U19
0.94
Lithuania U19
1.85

finishing

Belgium U19+0.00on par
Lithuania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium U19 ↓

Lithuania U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Belgium U19 or draw
83%
Belgium U19 or Lithuania U19
78%
Draw or Lithuania U19
39%

Winning margin

Belgium U19 wins by 2+
35%
Lithuania U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Belgium U19 1+ goals
84%
Belgium U19 2+ goals
55%
Belgium U19 3+ goals
28%
Lithuania U19 1+ goals
57%
Lithuania U19 2+ goals
21%
Lithuania U19 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Belgium U19 (draw refunded)
78%
Lithuania U19 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium U19 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Lithuania U19 away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium U19 attack 1.83 + Lithuania U19 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.84

Lithuania U19 attack 0.77 + Belgium U19 defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Belgium U19 scores more
61%
level
22%
Lithuania U19 scores more
17%

Belgium U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Belgium U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belgium U19 vs Lithuania U19

Belgium U19 beat Lithuania U19 4-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Beroe in Stara Zagora.