Belgium U19 0–2 Italy U19: Result & Stats

Belgium U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Italy U19

C. Casadei 45'

F. Miretti 9'

3/29/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 4Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Belgium U1935%

×Draw26%

Italy U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgium U19Expected goals in this matchItaly U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.35

Belgium U19

1.26

Italy U19

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

1.83

creates per match

1.77

0.94

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Belgium U19

1.83

Italy U19

1.77

allows per match

Belgium U19

0.94

Italy U19

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgium U19+0.00on par

Italy U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium U19 ↓

Italy U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Belgium U19 or draw

61%

Belgium U19 or Italy U19

74%

Draw or Italy U19

65%

Winning margin

Belgium U19 wins by 2+

15%

Italy U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Belgium U19 1+ goals

72%

Belgium U19 2+ goals

36%

Belgium U19 3+ goals

13%

Italy U19 1+ goals

74%

Italy U19 2+ goals

39%

Italy U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Belgium U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Italy U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium U19 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Italy U19 away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium U19 attack 1.83 + Italy U19 defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.26

Italy U19 attack 1.77 + Belgium U19 defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Belgium U19 scores more

35%

level

26%

Italy U19 scores more

39%

Italy U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Italy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

F. Miretti

45'

T. Rommens

45'

C. Casadei

59'

J. Bakayoko← C. Sandra

60'

M. Nasti← G. Ambrosino

65'

D. Ghilardi

65'

L. Audoor

70'

F. Miretti

72'

K. Olaigbe← T. Rommens

72'

M. Stroeykens← A. Descotte

82'

T. Baldanzi← W. Gnonto

88'

L. Mondele← L. Audoor

90'

F. Terracciano← F. Miretti

Belgium

Italy

1

17

6

23

5

10

⚽

▼

Miretti

8

⚽

Casadei

14

Fabbian

16

Faticanti

7

▼

Gnonto

9

▼

Ambrosino

1

Boets

5

▼

3

2

18

10

11

▼

Audoor

21

Engels

8

▼

Sandra

6

Lavia

19

▼

Descotte

Manager: W. Sonck

59'▲J. Bakayoko←▼C. Sandra

72'▲K. Olaigbe←▼T. Rommens

72'▲M. Stroeykens←▼A. Descotte

88'▲L. Mondele←▼L. Audoor

Belgium U19 substitutes

7Bakayoko15Olaigbe9Stroeykens17Mondele20Calut16Engwanda4Lagae14Wasinski12Jochmans

Manager: C. Nunziata

60'▲M. Nasti←▼G. Ambrosino

82'▲T. Baldanzi←▼W. Gnonto

90'▲F. Terracciano←▼F. Miretti

Italy U19 substitutes

20Nasti11Baldanzi13Terracciano4Coppola12Zacchi21Fazzini2Zanotti3Turicchia

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Belgium U19 0–2 Italy U19

Italy U19 beat Belgium U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 29, 2022.

Goals: F. Miretti (9'), C. Casadei (45').

The match was played at Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion in Vantaa.

Belgium U19 vs Italy U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Belgium U19 0–2 Italy U19