Belgium U19 3–2 Israel U19: Result & Stats

Belgium U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Israel U19

Y. Musuayi 80'

S. Buggea 42'

K. Furo 37'

L. Goemaere 76' (OG)

K. Zoabi 30'

3/25/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Stadion Event Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Belgium U1940%

×Draw25%

Israel U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgium U19Expected goals in this matchIsrael U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.36

Belgium U19

1.48

Israel U19

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

1.83

creates per match

1.79

0.94

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Belgium U19

1.83

Israel U19

1.79

allows per match

Belgium U19

0.94

Israel U19

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgium U19+0.00on par

Israel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium U19 ↓

Israel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Belgium U19 or draw

65%

Belgium U19 or Israel U19

75%

Draw or Israel U19

60%

Winning margin

Belgium U19 wins by 2+

19%

Israel U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Belgium U19 1+ goals

77%

Belgium U19 2+ goals

43%

Belgium U19 3+ goals

19%

Israel U19 1+ goals

74%

Israel U19 2+ goals

39%

Israel U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Belgium U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Israel U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium U19 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Israel U19 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium U19 attack 1.83 + Israel U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.48

Israel U19 attack 1.79 + Belgium U19 defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Belgium U19 scores more

40%

level

25%

Israel U19 scores more

35%

Belgium U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Belgium U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

K. Zoabi

37'

K. Furo

42'

S. Buggea

56'

S. Abu Farhi← L. Hazan

56'

U. Malka← D. Dappa

64'

A. Abu Moch← N. Schwartz

64'

Y. Blay← I. Khalaili

67'

K. Barry

69'

B. Vroninks← S. Buggea

69'

L. Vergeylen← A. Verstraeten

69'

Y. Musuayi← K. Furo

71'

R. Bounida

76'

L. GoemaereOwn goal

78'

J. Bawuah← K. Barry

78'

A. Waheb← N. Ozana

80'

Y. Musuayi

84'

S. Gomez Van Hoogen← Y. Musuayi

90+1'

A. Farchi

Belgium

Israel

1

Levy

5

Lance

2

▼

Schwartz

13

▼

Ozana

3

Feingsich

6

Ehud-Zair

10

▼

Hazan

15

Magur

11

⚽

Zoabi

7

▼

Khalaili

19

▼

Dappa

12

Pieklak

3

Kongolo

2

▼

Barry

6

▼

Verstraet

18

Wola-Wets

10

Bounida

16

🥅

Goemaere

20

Vanderdon

4

Nibombé

9

⚽

▼

Furo

17

⚽

▼

Buggea

Manager: S. Vermant

69'▲B. Vroninks←▼S. Buggea

69'▲L. Vergeylen←▼A. Verstraeten

69'▲Y. Musuayi←▼K. Furo

78'▲J. Bawuah←▼K. Barry

84'▲S. Gomez Van Hoogen←▼Y. Musuayi

Belgium U19 substitutes

7Vroninks13Vergeylen19Musuayi8Bawuah5Hoogen1Corte15Mbamba-Muanda14Costa

Manager: O. Haim

56'▲S. Abu Farhi←▼L. Hazan

56'▲U. Malka←▼D. Dappa

64'▲A. Abu Moch←▼N. Schwartz

64'▲Y. Blay←▼I. Khalaili

78'▲A. Waheb←▼N. Ozana

Israel U19 substitutes

9Farhi16Malka20Moch17Blay4Waheb12Baruch8Oli14Asras18Shani