Belgium U19 2–2 Germany U19: Result & Stats

Belgium U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Germany U19

L. Audoor 89'

L. Oyen 85'

B. Bobzien 54', 6'

3/26/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Belgium U1936%

×Draw24%

Germany U1940%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgium U19Expected goals in this matchGermany U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.60

Belgium U19

1.50

Germany U19

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

1.83

creates per match

2.27

0.94

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Belgium U19

1.83

Germany U19

2.27

allows per match

Belgium U19

0.94

Germany U19

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgium U19+0.00on par

Germany U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium U19 ↓

Germany U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Belgium U19 or draw

60%

Belgium U19 or Germany U19

76%

Draw or Germany U19

64%

Winning margin

Belgium U19 wins by 2+

17%

Germany U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Belgium U19 1+ goals

78%

Belgium U19 2+ goals

44%

Belgium U19 3+ goals

19%

Germany U19 1+ goals

80%

Germany U19 2+ goals

47%

Germany U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Belgium U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Germany U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium U19 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Germany U19 away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium U19 attack 1.83 + Germany U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.50

Germany U19 attack 2.27 + Belgium U19 defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Belgium U19 scores more

36%

level

24%

Germany U19 scores more

40%

Germany U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Germany U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

B. Bobzien

46'

N. Mbamba← L. Mondele

46'

R. Wagner← J. Castrop

54'

B. Bobzien

57'

A. Descotte← M. Stroeykens

57'

A. Engels← N. Ngoy

68'

M. Hoppe← B. Bobzien

71'

T. Rothe← A. Sieb

77'

C. Sandra← J. Bakayoko

77'

K. Olaigbe← T. Rommens

81'

F. Leysen

85'

E. Gedikli← I. Matanović

85'

L. Oyen

89'

L. Audoor

90+1'

L. Oyen

Belgium

Germany

1

13

4

2

17

6

▼

Castrop

7

Jessen

20

▼

Sieb

19

▼

Matanović

8

Kade

10

⚽2

▼

Bobzien

1

Boets

5

▼

Rommens

3

Leysen

2

▼

Ngoy

14

Wasinski

10

⚽

Oyen

11

⚽

Audoor

9

▼

Stroeyken

6

Lavia

17

▼

Mondele

7

▼

Bakayoko

Manager: W. Sonck

46'▲N. Mbamba←▼L. Mondele

57'▲A. Descotte←▼M. Stroeykens

57'▲A. Engels←▼N. Ngoy

77'▲C. Sandra←▼J. Bakayoko

77'▲K. Olaigbe←▼T. Rommens

Belgium U19 substitutes

18Mbamba19Descotte21Engels8Sandra15Olaigbe20Calut16Engwanda4Lagae12Jochmans

Manager: H. Wolf

46'▲R. Wagner←▼J. Castrop

68'▲M. Hoppe←▼B. Bobzien

71'▲T. Rothe←▼A. Sieb

85'▲E. Gedikli←▼I. Matanović

Germany U19 substitutes

18Wagner5Hoppe15Rothe11Gedikli14Riedel3Lelle16Semić12Ernst