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Belgium U19 vs Denmark U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Belgium U19
Belgium U19
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Denmark U19
Denmark U19
3/25/2026UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 1Stadium Kromeriz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Belgium U1930%
×Draw24%
Denmark U1947%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgium U19
1.33
Denmark U19
1.72

Denmark U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

creates per match

Belgium U19
1.83
Denmark U19
2.50

allows per match

Belgium U19
0.94
Denmark U19
0.83

finishing

Belgium U19+0.00on par
Denmark U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium U19 ↓

Denmark U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Belgium U19 or draw
53%
Belgium U19 or Denmark U19
76%
Draw or Denmark U19
70%

Winning margin

Belgium U19 wins by 2+
13%
Denmark U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Belgium U19 1+ goals
74%
Belgium U19 2+ goals
38%
Belgium U19 3+ goals
15%
Denmark U19 1+ goals
82%
Denmark U19 2+ goals
51%
Denmark U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Belgium U19 (draw refunded)
39%
Denmark U19 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium U19 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Denmark U19 away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium U19 attack 1.83 + Denmark U19 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.33

Denmark U19 attack 2.50 + Belgium U19 defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Belgium U19 scores more
30%
level
24%
Denmark U19 scores more
47%

Denmark U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Denmark U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belgium U19 vs Denmark U19

Belgium U19 and Denmark U19 drew 0-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 25, 2026.

The match was played at Stadium Kromeriz in Kromeriz.