Belgium U19 4–0 Cyprus U19: Result & Stats

Belgium U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Cyprus U19

T. Van De Ven 70'

A. De Kimpe 55'

W. Gielen 41'

A. Camara 30'

3/25/2026

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualification - Round 1 - League A - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Belgium U1964%

×Draw22%

Cyprus U1915%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgium U19Expected goals in this matchCyprus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.76

Belgium U19

1.88

Cyprus U19

0.76

Belgium U19 creates 147% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

1.83

creates per match

0.58

0.94

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Belgium U19

1.83

Cyprus U19

0.58

allows per match

Belgium U19

0.94

Cyprus U19

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgium U19+0.00on par

Cyprus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium U19 ↓

Cyprus U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Belgium U19 or draw

85%

Belgium U19 or Cyprus U19

78%

Draw or Cyprus U19

36%

Winning margin

Belgium U19 wins by 2+

38%

Cyprus U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Belgium U19 1+ goals

85%

Belgium U19 2+ goals

56%

Belgium U19 3+ goals

29%

Cyprus U19 1+ goals

53%

Cyprus U19 2+ goals

18%

Cyprus U19 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Belgium U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Cyprus U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium U19 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Cyprus U19 away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium U19 attack 1.83 + Cyprus U19 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.88

Cyprus U19 attack 0.58 + Belgium U19 defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Belgium U19 scores more

64%

level

22%

Cyprus U19 scores more

15%

Belgium U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Belgium U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

A. Camara

41'

W. Gielen

46'

C. Thoma← G. Michael

46'

C. Kittou← P. Hadjievangelou

46'

A. Avraam← S. Kontopoulos

55'

A. De Kimpe

63'

A. Mavroudis← T. Kalogirou

69'

W. Kapers← A. Wins

69'

T. Van De Ven← R. Mitongo

69'

M. Lohunanu-Mbasi← J. Da Silva

70'

T. Van De Ven

72'

C. Ioakeim← M. Petrou

76'

M. Verhaeghe← M. Wamu Oyatambwe

85'

A. de Ridder← N. Amengai

Belgium

Cyprus

1

18

5

4

3

▼

Hadjievan

6

▼

Michael

11

▼

Kalogirou

13

Solomou

8

Karamani

9

▼

Kontopoul

7

▼

Petrou

1

Brughmans

2

⚽

Kimpe

3

Jonkers

4

⚽

Gielen

5

▼

Wins

18

Murenzi

6

▼

Oyatambwe

8

▼

Amengai

7

⚽

Camara

9

▼

Mitongo

11

▼

Silva

Manager: S. Vermant

69'▲W. Kapers←▼A. Wins

69'▲T. Van De Ven←▼R. Mitongo

69'▲M. Lohunanu-Mbasi←▼J. Da Silva

76'▲M. Verhaeghe←▼M. Wamu Oyatambwe

85'▲A. de Ridder←▼N. Amengai

Belgium U19 substitutes

12Evers13Elbay14Braspenning15Verhaeghe16Kapers17Ridder19Ven20Lohunanu-Mbasi

Manager: V. Koulountis

46'▲C. Thoma←▼G. Michael

46'▲C. Kittou←▼P. Hadjievangelou

46'▲A. Avraam←▼S. Kontopoulos

63'▲A. Mavroudis←▼T. Kalogirou

72'▲C. Ioakeim←▼M. Petrou

Cyprus U19 substitutes

12Chistodoulou2Ioakeim10Thoma14Procopiou15Kittou16Avraam17Neokleous19Mavroudis20Panagiotis