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Belgium U17 vs Wales U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Belgium U17
Belgium U17
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wales U17
Wales U17
11/18/2023UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 8Cardiff International Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Belgium U1747%
×Draw21%
Wales U1732%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgium U17
2.13
Wales U17
1.75

Belgium U17 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

creates per match

Belgium U17
2.58
Wales U17
2.44

allows per match

Belgium U17
1.05
Wales U17
1.69

finishing

Belgium U17+0.00on par
Wales U17+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium U17 ↓

Wales U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Belgium U17 or draw
68%
Belgium U17 or Wales U17
79%
Draw or Wales U17
53%

Winning margin

Belgium U17 wins by 2+
27%
Wales U17 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Belgium U17 1+ goals
88%
Belgium U17 2+ goals
63%
Belgium U17 3+ goals
35%
Wales U17 1+ goals
83%
Wales U17 2+ goals
52%
Wales U17 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Belgium U17 (draw refunded)
59%
Wales U17 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium U17 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Wales U17 away — creates 2.44, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium U17 attack 2.58 + Wales U17 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.13

Wales U17 attack 2.44 + Belgium U17 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Belgium U17 scores more
47%
level
21%
Wales U17 scores more
32%

Belgium U17 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Belgium U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Belgium U17 0–1 Wales U17

Wales U17 beat Belgium U17 1-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Cardiff International Sports Stadium in Caerdydd.