Belgium U17 1–1 Slovenia U17: Result & Stats

Belgium U17

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Slovenia U17

3/22/2023

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Belgium U1747%

×Draw22%

Slovenia U1731%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgium U17Expected goals in this matchSlovenia U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.56

Belgium U17

1.97

Slovenia U17

1.56

Belgium U17 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

2.58

creates per match

2.07

1.05

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Belgium U17

2.58

Slovenia U17

2.07

allows per match

Belgium U17

1.05

Slovenia U17

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgium U17+0.00on par

Slovenia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium U17 ↓

Slovenia U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Belgium U17 or draw

69%

Belgium U17 or Slovenia U17

78%

Draw or Slovenia U17

53%

Winning margin

Belgium U17 wins by 2+

27%

Slovenia U17 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Belgium U17 1+ goals

86%

Belgium U17 2+ goals

58%

Belgium U17 3+ goals

31%

Slovenia U17 1+ goals

79%

Slovenia U17 2+ goals

46%

Slovenia U17 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Belgium U17 (draw refunded)

61%

Slovenia U17 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium U17 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Slovenia U17 away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium U17 attack 2.58 + Slovenia U17 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.97

Slovenia U17 attack 2.07 + Belgium U17 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Belgium U17 scores more

47%

level

22%

Slovenia U17 scores more

31%

Belgium U17 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Belgium U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff