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Belgium U17 vs Romania U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Belgium U17
Belgium U17
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Romania U17
Romania U17
10/29/2022UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Belgium U1746%
×Draw22%
Romania U1731%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgium U17
1.89
Romania U17
1.52

Belgium U17 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

creates per match

Belgium U17
2.58
Romania U17
2.00

allows per match

Belgium U17
1.05
Romania U17
1.20

finishing

Belgium U17+0.00on par
Romania U17+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium U17 ↓

Romania U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Belgium U17 or draw
69%
Belgium U17 or Romania U17
78%
Draw or Romania U17
54%

Winning margin

Belgium U17 wins by 2+
26%
Romania U17 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Belgium U17 1+ goals
85%
Belgium U17 2+ goals
56%
Belgium U17 3+ goals
29%
Romania U17 1+ goals
78%
Romania U17 2+ goals
45%
Romania U17 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Belgium U17 (draw refunded)
60%
Romania U17 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium U17 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Romania U17 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium U17 attack 2.58 + Romania U17 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.89

Romania U17 attack 2.00 + Belgium U17 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Belgium U17 scores more
46%
level
22%
Romania U17 scores more
31%

Belgium U17 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Belgium U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belgium U17 vs Romania U17

Belgium U17 beat Romania U17 3-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Natural in Buftea.