Belfort 0–3 Rennes: Result & Stats

Belfort

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Rennes

Jordan Siebatcheu 90'

M'Baye Niang 71' (pen)

Raphinha 23'

2/11/2020

Coupe de France · Quarter-finalsStade Auguste-Bonal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Belfort32%

×Draw25%

Rennes43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelfortExpected goals in this matchRennes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.57

Belfort

1.31

Rennes

1.57

Rennes creates 20% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

1.57

creates per match

2.00

1.14

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Belfort

1.57

Rennes

2.00

allows per match

Belfort

1.14

Rennes

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belfort+0.00on par

Rennes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belfort ↓

Rennes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Belfort or draw

57%

Belfort or Rennes

75%

Draw or Rennes

68%

Winning margin

Belfort wins by 2+

14%

Rennes wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Belfort 1+ goals

73%

Belfort 2+ goals

38%

Belfort 3+ goals

14%

Rennes 1+ goals

79%

Rennes 2+ goals

46%

Rennes 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Belfort (draw refunded)

42%

Rennes (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belfort at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Rennes away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belfort attack 1.57 + Rennes defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.31

Rennes attack 2.00 + Belfort defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Belfort scores more

32%

level

25%

Rennes scores more

43%

Rennes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rennes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Raphinha

Rennes · M

8.6

Match Events

23'

Raphinha↳ Romain Del Castillo

26'

M'Baye Niang

35'

James Léa Siliki

45'

Mamadou Magassouba

46'

Faitout Maouassa← James Léa Siliki

57'

Nasser Tahiri

60'

Maxime Loichot← Nasser Tahiri

68'

Mohamed Bentahar← Ludovic Saline

71'

M'Baye NiangPenalty

76'

Enzo Grasso← Isaak Umbdenstock

76'

Jordan Siebatcheu← M'Baye Niang

77'

Isaak Umbdenstock

82'

Enzo Grasso

83'

Eduardo Camavinga

87'

Benjamin Bourigeaud← Steven N'Zonzi

90'

Jordan Siebatcheu↳ Raphinha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BelfortRennes

Overview

39%Possession61%

10Total Shots13

3Corners5

10Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots13

2On Target6

4Off Target5

4Blocked2

4Inside Box10

6Outside Box3

Passing

39%Possession61%

368Total Passes578

313Accurate Passes514

85%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls12

4Yellow Cards3

4Offsides5