Belenenses 1–2 Sporting CP: Result & Stats

Belenenses

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Sporting CP

12/27/2020

Primeira Liga · Round 11Estádio Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Belenenses21%

×Draw23%

Sporting CP56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelenensesExpected goals in this matchSporting CP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.76

Belenenses

0.98

Sporting CP

1.76

Sporting CP creates 80% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 137 away

1.00

creates per match

2.07

1.46

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Belenenses

1.00

Sporting CP

2.07

allows per match

Belenenses

1.46

Sporting CP

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belenenses+0.00on par

Sporting CP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belenenses ↓

Sporting CP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Belenenses or draw

44%

Belenenses or Sporting CP

77%

Draw or Sporting CP

79%

Winning margin

Belenenses wins by 2+

7%

Sporting CP wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Belenenses 1+ goals

62%

Belenenses 2+ goals

26%

Belenenses 3+ goals

8%

Sporting CP 1+ goals

83%

Sporting CP 2+ goals

52%

Sporting CP 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Belenenses (draw refunded)

27%

Sporting CP (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belenenses at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

Sporting CP away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.96 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belenenses attack 1.00 + Sporting CP defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Sporting CP attack 2.07 + Belenenses defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Belenenses scores more

21%

level

23%

Sporting CP scores more

56%

Sporting CP at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff