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Belenenses vs Penafiel — Segunda Liga 2018

Belenenses
Belenenses
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Penafiel
Penafiel
2/13/2023Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 20Estádio Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Belenenses33%
×Draw26%
Penafiel41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belenenses
1.24
Penafiel
1.43

Penafiel creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 131 away

creates per match

Belenenses
1.06
Penafiel
1.02

allows per match

Belenenses
1.83
Penafiel
1.42

finishing

Belenenses+0.00on par
Penafiel+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belenenses ↓

Penafiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Belenenses or draw
59%
Belenenses or Penafiel
74%
Draw or Penafiel
67%

Winning margin

Belenenses wins by 2+
14%
Penafiel wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Belenenses 1+ goals
71%
Belenenses 2+ goals
35%
Belenenses 3+ goals
13%
Penafiel 1+ goals
76%
Penafiel 2+ goals
42%
Penafiel 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Belenenses (draw refunded)
44%
Penafiel (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belenenses at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Penafiel away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.42 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belenenses attack 1.06 + Penafiel defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.24

Penafiel attack 1.02 + Belenenses defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Belenenses scores more
33%
level
26%
Penafiel scores more
41%

Penafiel at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Penafiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Belenenses 2–2 Penafiel

Belenenses and Penafiel drew 2-2 in Segunda Liga on February 13, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional in Jamor, Oeiras.