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Belenenses vs Pacos Ferreira — Primeira Liga 2018

Belenenses
Belenenses
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Pacos Ferreira
Pacos Ferreira
2/25/2022Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 24Estádio Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Belenenses38%
×Draw27%
Pacos Ferreira35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belenenses
1.25
Pacos Ferreira
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Belenenses
1.00
Pacos Ferreira
0.90

allows per match

Belenenses
1.46
Pacos Ferreira
1.51

finishing

Belenenses+0.00on par
Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belenenses ↓

Pacos Ferreira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Belenenses or draw
65%
Belenenses or Pacos Ferreira
73%
Draw or Pacos Ferreira
62%

Winning margin

Belenenses wins by 2+
17%
Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Belenenses 1+ goals
71%
Belenenses 2+ goals
36%
Belenenses 3+ goals
13%
Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals
69%
Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals
33%
Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Belenenses (draw refunded)
52%
Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belenenses at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

Pacos Ferreira away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.51 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belenenses attack 1.00 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Pacos Ferreira attack 0.90 + Belenenses defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Belenenses scores more
38%
level
27%
Pacos Ferreira scores more
35%

Belenenses at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Belenenses will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Belenenses 0–2 Pacos Ferreira

Pacos Ferreira beat Belenenses 2-0 in Primeira Liga on February 25, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional in Jamor, Oeiras.