Belenenses 2–1 Oliveirense: Result & Stats

Belenenses

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Oliveirense

5/20/2023

Segunda Liga · Round 33Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Belenenses37%

×Draw26%

Oliveirense38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelenensesExpected goals in this matchOliveirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.38

Belenenses

1.36

Oliveirense

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 114 away

1.06

creates per match

0.93

1.83

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Belenenses

1.06

Oliveirense

0.93

allows per match

Belenenses

1.83

Oliveirense

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belenenses+0.00on par

Oliveirense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belenenses ↓

Oliveirense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Belenenses or draw

62%

Belenenses or Oliveirense

74%

Draw or Oliveirense

63%

Winning margin

Belenenses wins by 2+

17%

Oliveirense wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Belenenses 1+ goals

74%

Belenenses 2+ goals

39%

Belenenses 3+ goals

16%

Oliveirense 1+ goals

75%

Oliveirense 2+ goals

40%

Oliveirense 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Belenenses (draw refunded)

49%

Oliveirense (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belenenses at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Oliveirense away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.66 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belenenses attack 1.06 + Oliveirense defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.36

Oliveirense attack 0.93 + Belenenses defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Belenenses scores more

37%

level

26%

Oliveirense scores more

38%

Oliveirense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oliveirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff