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Belenenses vs Mafra — Segunda Liga 2018

Belenenses
Belenenses
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mafra
Mafra
5/13/2023Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 32Estádio Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Belenenses33%
×Draw25%
Mafra42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belenenses
1.27
Mafra
1.47

Mafra creates 16% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 114 away

creates per match

Belenenses
1.06
Mafra
1.10

allows per match

Belenenses
1.83
Mafra
1.49

finishing

Belenenses+0.00on par
Mafra+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belenenses ↓

Mafra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Belenenses or draw
58%
Belenenses or Mafra
75%
Draw or Mafra
67%

Winning margin

Belenenses wins by 2+
14%
Mafra wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Belenenses 1+ goals
72%
Belenenses 2+ goals
36%
Belenenses 3+ goals
14%
Mafra 1+ goals
77%
Mafra 2+ goals
43%
Mafra 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Belenenses (draw refunded)
44%
Mafra (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belenenses at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Mafra away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.49 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belenenses attack 1.06 + Mafra defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mafra attack 1.10 + Belenenses defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Belenenses scores more
33%
level
25%
Mafra scores more
42%

Mafra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Belenenses 2–2 Mafra

Belenenses and Mafra drew 2-2 in Segunda Liga on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional in Jamor, Oeiras.