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Belchite 97 vs Villanueva CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Belchite 97
Belchite 97
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Villanueva CF
Villanueva CF
9/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2Campo de Futbol Municipal de Belchite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Belchite 9748%
×Draw27%
Villanueva CF25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belchite 97
1.39
Villanueva CF
0.91

Belchite 97 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 30 away

creates per match

Belchite 97
1.01
Villanueva CF
0.73

allows per match

Belchite 97
1.09
Villanueva CF
1.77

finishing

Belchite 97+0.00on par
Villanueva CF+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belchite 97 ↓

Villanueva CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Belchite 97 or draw
75%
Belchite 97 or Villanueva CF
73%
Draw or Villanueva CF
52%

Winning margin

Belchite 97 wins by 2+
23%
Villanueva CF wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Belchite 97 1+ goals
75%
Belchite 97 2+ goals
40%
Belchite 97 3+ goals
16%
Villanueva CF 1+ goals
60%
Villanueva CF 2+ goals
23%
Villanueva CF 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Belchite 97 (draw refunded)
66%
Villanueva CF (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belchite 97 at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

Villanueva CF away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belchite 97 attack 1.01 + Villanueva CF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.39

Villanueva CF attack 0.73 + Belchite 97 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Belchite 97 scores more
48%
level
27%
Villanueva CF scores more
25%

Belchite 97 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Belchite 97 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Belchite 97 1 – 1 Villanueva CF

Belchite 97 and Villanueva CF drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Municipal de Belchite in Belchite.