Belchite 97 1–1 Santa Anastasia: Result & Stats

Belchite 97

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Santa Anastasia

4/16/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 32Campo de Futbol Municipal de Belchite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Belchite 9742%

×Draw28%

Santa Anastasia30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belchite 97Expected goals in this matchSanta Anastasia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.02

Belchite 97

1.25

Santa Anastasia

1.02

Belchite 97 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 16 away

1.01

creates per match

0.94

1.09

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Belchite 97

1.01

Santa Anastasia

0.94

allows per match

Belchite 97

1.09

Santa Anastasia

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belchite 97+0.00on par

Santa Anastasia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belchite 97 ↓

Santa Anastasia →

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Belchite 97 or draw

70%

Belchite 97 or Santa Anastasia

72%

Draw or Santa Anastasia

58%

Winning margin

Belchite 97 wins by 2+

18%

Santa Anastasia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Belchite 97 1+ goals

71%

Belchite 97 2+ goals

36%

Belchite 97 3+ goals

13%

Santa Anastasia 1+ goals

64%

Santa Anastasia 2+ goals

27%

Santa Anastasia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Belchite 97 (draw refunded)

58%

Santa Anastasia (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Belchite 97 at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

Santa Anastasia away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Belchite 97 attack 1.01 + Santa Anastasia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Santa Anastasia attack 0.94 + Belchite 97 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Belchite 97 scores more

42%

level

28%

Santa Anastasia scores more

30%

Belchite 97 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Belchite 97 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Belchite 97 1–1 Santa Anastasia

Belchite 97 and Santa Anastasia drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Municipal de Belchite in Belchite.

Belchite 97 vs Santa Anastasia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Belchite 97 1–1 Santa Anastasia