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Belchite 97 vs San Juan Mozarrifar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Belchite 97
Belchite 97
FT
3 – 0
San Juan Mozarrifar
San Juan Mozarrifar
12/20/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 10Campo de Futbol Municipal de Belchite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Belchite 9755%
×Draw26%
San Juan Mozarrifar19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belchite 97
1.54
San Juan Mozarrifar
0.78

Belchite 97 creates 97% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 24 away

creates per match

Belchite 97
1.01
San Juan Mozarrifar
0.46

allows per match

Belchite 97
1.09
San Juan Mozarrifar
2.08

finishing

Belchite 97+0.00on par
San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belchite 97 ↓

San Juan Mozarrifar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Belchite 97 or draw
81%
Belchite 97 or San Juan Mozarrifar
74%
Draw or San Juan Mozarrifar
45%

Winning margin

Belchite 97 wins by 2+
29%
San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Belchite 97 1+ goals
79%
Belchite 97 2+ goals
45%
Belchite 97 3+ goals
20%
San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals
54%
San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals
18%
San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Belchite 97 (draw refunded)
74%
San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belchite 97 at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

San Juan Mozarrifar away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belchite 97 attack 1.01 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.46 + Belchite 97 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Belchite 97 scores more
55%
level
26%
San Juan Mozarrifar scores more
19%

Belchite 97 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Belchite 97 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Belchite 97 3–0 San Juan Mozarrifar

Belchite 97 beat San Juan Mozarrifar 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on December 20, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Municipal de Belchite in Belchite.