Belchite 97 1–1 Ebro: Result & Stats

Belchite 97

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ebro

1/7/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 15Campo de Futbol Municipal de Belchite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Belchite 9726%

×Draw30%

Ebro44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belchite 97Expected goals in this matchEbro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.19

Belchite 97

0.83

Ebro

1.19

Ebro creates 43% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 34 away

1.01

creates per match

1.29

1.09

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

Belchite 97

1.01

Ebro

1.29

allows per match

Belchite 97

1.09

Ebro

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belchite 97+0.00on par

Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belchite 97 ↓

Ebro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–116%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Belchite 97 or draw

56%

Belchite 97 or Ebro

70%

Draw or Ebro

74%

Winning margin

Belchite 97 wins by 2+

8%

Ebro wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Belchite 97 1+ goals

56%

Belchite 97 2+ goals

20%

Belchite 97 3+ goals

5%

Ebro 1+ goals

70%

Ebro 2+ goals

33%

Ebro 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Belchite 97 (draw refunded)

37%

Ebro (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belchite 97 at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

Ebro away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belchite 97 attack 1.01 + Ebro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.83

Ebro attack 1.29 + Belchite 97 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Belchite 97 scores more

26%

level

30%

Ebro scores more

44%

Ebro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff