Belchite 97 1–1 CDJ Tamarite: Result & Stats

Belchite 97

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CDJ Tamarite

4/27/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 31Campo de Futbol Municipal de Belchite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Belchite 9745%

×Draw27%

CDJ Tamarite29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belchite 97Expected goals in this matchCDJ Tamarite

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.07

Belchite 97

1.41

CDJ Tamarite

1.07

Belchite 97 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 98 away

1.01

creates per match

1.05

1.09

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Belchite 97

1.01

CDJ Tamarite

1.05

allows per match

Belchite 97

1.09

CDJ Tamarite

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belchite 97+0.00on par

CDJ Tamarite+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belchite 97 ↓

CDJ Tamarite →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Belchite 97 or draw

71%

Belchite 97 or CDJ Tamarite

73%

Draw or CDJ Tamarite

55%

Winning margin

Belchite 97 wins by 2+

21%

CDJ Tamarite wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Belchite 97 1+ goals

76%

Belchite 97 2+ goals

41%

Belchite 97 3+ goals

17%

CDJ Tamarite 1+ goals

66%

CDJ Tamarite 2+ goals

29%

CDJ Tamarite 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Belchite 97 (draw refunded)

61%

CDJ Tamarite (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belchite 97 at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

CDJ Tamarite away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belchite 97 attack 1.01 + CDJ Tamarite defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.41

CDJ Tamarite attack 1.05 + Belchite 97 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Belchite 97 scores more

45%

level

27%

CDJ Tamarite scores more

29%

Belchite 97 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Belchite 97 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff