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Belchite 97 vs Barbastro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Belchite 97
Belchite 97
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Barbastro
Barbastro
9/15/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 4Campo de Futbol Municipal de Belchite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Belchite 9731%
×Draw28%
Barbastro41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belchite 97
1.09
Barbastro
1.30

Barbastro creates 19% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 59 away

creates per match

Belchite 97
1.01
Barbastro
1.51

allows per match

Belchite 97
1.09
Barbastro
1.17

finishing

Belchite 97+0.00on par
Barbastro+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belchite 97 ↓

Barbastro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Belchite 97 or draw
59%
Belchite 97 or Barbastro
72%
Draw or Barbastro
69%

Winning margin

Belchite 97 wins by 2+
12%
Barbastro wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Belchite 97 1+ goals
66%
Belchite 97 2+ goals
30%
Belchite 97 3+ goals
10%
Barbastro 1+ goals
73%
Barbastro 2+ goals
37%
Barbastro 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Belchite 97 (draw refunded)
43%
Barbastro (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belchite 97 at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

Barbastro away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belchite 97 attack 1.01 + Barbastro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Barbastro attack 1.51 + Belchite 97 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Belchite 97 scores more
31%
level
28%
Barbastro scores more
41%

Barbastro at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Barbastro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Belchite 97 1–0 Barbastro

Belchite 97 beat Barbastro 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Municipal de Belchite in Belchite.