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Belchite 97 vs Atlético Monzón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Belchite 97
Belchite 97
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Monzón
Atlético Monzón
4/13/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 29Campo de Futbol Municipal de Belchite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Belchite 9733%
×Draw29%
Atlético Monzón38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belchite 97
1.07
Atlético Monzón
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 115 away

creates per match

Belchite 97
1.01
Atlético Monzón
1.22

allows per match

Belchite 97
1.09
Atlético Monzón
1.13

finishing

Belchite 97+0.00on par
Atlético Monzón+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belchite 97 ↓

Atlético Monzón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Belchite 97 or draw
62%
Belchite 97 or Atlético Monzón
71%
Draw or Atlético Monzón
67%

Winning margin

Belchite 97 wins by 2+
13%
Atlético Monzón wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Belchite 97 1+ goals
66%
Belchite 97 2+ goals
29%
Belchite 97 3+ goals
9%
Atlético Monzón 1+ goals
69%
Atlético Monzón 2+ goals
32%
Atlético Monzón 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Belchite 97 (draw refunded)
47%
Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belchite 97 at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

Atlético Monzón away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.13 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belchite 97 attack 1.01 + Atlético Monzón defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Atlético Monzón attack 1.22 + Belchite 97 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Belchite 97 scores more
33%
level
29%
Atlético Monzón scores more
38%

Atlético Monzón at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlético Monzón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Belchite 97 0–0 Atlético Monzón

Belchite 97 and Atlético Monzón drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Municipal de Belchite in Belchite.