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Belasitsa vs Perun Kresna — Third League - Southwest 2018

Belasitsa
Belasitsa
FT
1 – 0
Perun Kresna
Perun Kresna
9/21/2019Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 8Stadion Kolarovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Belasitsa77%
×Draw15%
Perun Kresna8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belasitsa
2.53
Perun Kresna
0.70

Belasitsa creates 261% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 26 away

creates per match

Belasitsa
2.47
Perun Kresna
0.58

allows per match

Belasitsa
0.81
Perun Kresna
2.58

finishing

Belasitsa+0.00on par
Perun Kresna+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belasitsa ↓

Perun Kresna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Belasitsa or draw
92%
Belasitsa or Perun Kresna
85%
Draw or Perun Kresna
23%

Winning margin

Belasitsa wins by 2+
55%
Perun Kresna wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Belasitsa 1+ goals
92%
Belasitsa 2+ goals
71%
Belasitsa 3+ goals
46%
Perun Kresna 1+ goals
50%
Perun Kresna 2+ goals
16%
Perun Kresna 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Belasitsa (draw refunded)
90%
Perun Kresna (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belasitsa at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.81 · 62 matches

Perun Kresna away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belasitsa attack 2.47 + Perun Kresna defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.53

Perun Kresna attack 0.58 + Belasitsa defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Belasitsa scores more
77%
level
15%
Perun Kresna scores more
8%

Belasitsa at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Belasitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Belasitsa 1–0 Perun Kresna

Belasitsa beat Perun Kresna 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Kolarovo in Kolarovo.