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Belasitsa vs Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

Belasitsa
Belasitsa
CANC
00:00
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
3/18/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 22Stadion Kolarovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Belasitsa69%
×Draw17%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belasitsa
2.42
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
0.95

Belasitsa creates 155% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 78 away

creates per match

Belasitsa
2.47
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.09

allows per match

Belasitsa
0.81
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
2.37

finishing

Belasitsa+0.00on par
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belasitsa ↓

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Belasitsa or draw
87%
Belasitsa or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
83%
Draw or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
31%

Winning margin

Belasitsa wins by 2+
47%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Belasitsa 1+ goals
91%
Belasitsa 2+ goals
69%
Belasitsa 3+ goals
43%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
61%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
25%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Belasitsa (draw refunded)
84%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belasitsa at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.81 · 62 matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.37 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belasitsa attack 2.47 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.42

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.09 + Belasitsa defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Belasitsa scores more
69%
level
17%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
13%

Belasitsa at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Belasitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Belasitsa host Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

March 18, 2020: Belasitsa take on Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi in Third League - Southwest. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Belasitsa host Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at Stadion Kolarovo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.