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Belasitsa vs Hebar II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Belasitsa
Belasitsa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hebar II
Hebar II
4/2/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 27Stadion Tsar Samuil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Belasitsa69%
×Draw20%
Hebar II11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belasitsa
2.04
Hebar II
0.68

Belasitsa creates 200% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 38 away

creates per match

Belasitsa
2.47
Hebar II
0.55

allows per match

Belasitsa
0.81
Hebar II
1.61

finishing

Belasitsa+0.00on par
Hebar II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belasitsa ↓

Hebar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Belasitsa or draw
89%
Belasitsa or Hebar II
80%
Draw or Hebar II
31%

Winning margin

Belasitsa wins by 2+
44%
Hebar II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Belasitsa 1+ goals
87%
Belasitsa 2+ goals
60%
Belasitsa 3+ goals
33%
Hebar II 1+ goals
49%
Hebar II 2+ goals
15%
Hebar II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Belasitsa (draw refunded)
86%
Hebar II (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belasitsa at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.81 · 62 matches

Hebar II away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belasitsa attack 2.47 + Hebar II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.04

Hebar II attack 0.55 + Belasitsa defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Belasitsa scores more
69%
level
20%
Hebar II scores more
11%

Belasitsa at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Belasitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Belasitsa 1–0 Hebar II

Belasitsa beat Hebar II 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Tsar Samuil in Petrich.