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Belasitsa vs Granit Vladaya — Third League - Southwest 2018

Belasitsa
Belasitsa
FT
3 – 1
Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
8/22/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 3Stadion Kolarovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Belasitsa75%
×Draw15%
Granit Vladaya9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belasitsa
2.55
Granit Vladaya
0.78

Belasitsa creates 227% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 70 away

creates per match

Belasitsa
2.47
Granit Vladaya
0.74

allows per match

Belasitsa
0.81
Granit Vladaya
2.63

finishing

Belasitsa+0.00on par
Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belasitsa ↓

Granit Vladaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Belasitsa or draw
91%
Belasitsa or Granit Vladaya
85%
Draw or Granit Vladaya
25%

Winning margin

Belasitsa wins by 2+
53%
Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Belasitsa 1+ goals
92%
Belasitsa 2+ goals
72%
Belasitsa 3+ goals
46%
Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
54%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
18%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Belasitsa (draw refunded)
89%
Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belasitsa at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.81 · 62 matches

Granit Vladaya away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belasitsa attack 2.47 + Granit Vladaya defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.55

Granit Vladaya attack 0.74 + Belasitsa defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Belasitsa scores more
75%
level
15%
Granit Vladaya scores more
9%

Belasitsa at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Belasitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belasitsa vs Granit Vladaya

Belasitsa beat Granit Vladaya 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Kolarovo in Kolarovo.