Belasitsa 2–0 Dunav Ruse: Result & Stats

Belasitsa

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dunav Ruse

9/1/2024

Second League · Round 7Stadion Tsar Samuil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Belasitsa39%

×Draw28%

Dunav Ruse33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelasitsaExpected goals in this matchDunav Ruse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.10

Belasitsa

1.22

Dunav Ruse

1.10

Belasitsa creates 11% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 69 away

1.30

creates per match

1.19

1.01

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Belasitsa

1.30

Dunav Ruse

1.19

allows per match

Belasitsa

1.01

Dunav Ruse

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belasitsa+0.00on par

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belasitsa ↓

Dunav Ruse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Belasitsa or draw

67%

Belasitsa or Dunav Ruse

72%

Draw or Dunav Ruse

61%

Winning margin

Belasitsa wins by 2+

17%

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Belasitsa 1+ goals

70%

Belasitsa 2+ goals

34%

Belasitsa 3+ goals

12%

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals

67%

Dunav Ruse 2+ goals

30%

Dunav Ruse 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Belasitsa (draw refunded)

54%

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belasitsa at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.01 · 69 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belasitsa attack 1.30 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.22

Dunav Ruse attack 1.19 + Belasitsa defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Belasitsa scores more

39%

level

28%

Dunav Ruse scores more

33%

Belasitsa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Belasitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff