Belasitsa 1–1 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Belasitsa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

K. Eta 59'

Z. Petkov 90+2' (pen)

7/29/2023

Second League · Round 3Stadion Struma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Belasitsa45%

×Draw28%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelasitsaExpected goals in this matchChernomorets 1919 Burgas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.97

Belasitsa

1.34

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

0.97

Belasitsa creates 38% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 33 away

1.30

creates per match

0.94

1.01

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Belasitsa

1.30

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

0.94

allows per match

Belasitsa

1.01

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belasitsa+0.00on par

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belasitsa ↓

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Belasitsa or draw

73%

Belasitsa or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

72%

Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

55%

Winning margin

Belasitsa wins by 2+

21%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Belasitsa 1+ goals

74%

Belasitsa 2+ goals

39%

Belasitsa 3+ goals

15%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals

62%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals

25%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Belasitsa (draw refunded)

63%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belasitsa at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.01 · 69 matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belasitsa attack 1.30 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 0.94 + Belasitsa defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Belasitsa scores more

45%

level

28%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more

27%

Belasitsa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Belasitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

D. Cabanelas← K. Pavlov

59'

K. Eta

63'

D. Ivanov← V. Gyuzelev

68'

D. Cabanelas

70'

A. Smilkov← D. Ivanov

70'

A. Taonsa← M. Vangelov

70'

I. Valev← D. Cabanelas

79'

H. Petrov← A. Karachorov

79'

V. Ergin← A. Shamkalov

87'

Z. Dinev

90+1'

A. Dimitrov

90+2'

Z. PetkovPenalty

Belasitsa

Chernomorets

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: P. Kolev

70'▲A. Smilkov←▼D. Ivanov

70'▲A. Taonsa←▼M. Vangelov

79'▲H. Petrov←▼A. Karachorov

79'▲V. Ergin←▼A. Shamkalov

Belasitsa substitutes

SmilkovTaonsaPetrovErginYovchevTodorskiDimitrovDimitrov

Manager: A. Stoykov

21'▲D. Cabanelas←▼K. Pavlov

63'▲D. Ivanov←▼V. Gyuzelev

70'▲I. Valev←▼D. Cabanelas

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas substitutes

CabanelasIvanovValevZhekovAngelovSheytanovTsonchev