Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Belasitsa vs Chavdar Etropole — Third League - Southwest 2018

Belasitsa
Belasitsa
CANC
00:00
Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
4/11/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Belasitsa54%
×Draw22%
Chavdar Etropole23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belasitsa
1.91
Chavdar Etropole
1.18

Belasitsa creates 62% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 87 away

creates per match

Belasitsa
2.47
Chavdar Etropole
1.55

allows per match

Belasitsa
0.81
Chavdar Etropole
1.34

finishing

Belasitsa+0.00on par
Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belasitsa ↓

Chavdar Etropole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Belasitsa or draw
77%
Belasitsa or Chavdar Etropole
78%
Draw or Chavdar Etropole
46%

Winning margin

Belasitsa wins by 2+
31%
Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Belasitsa 1+ goals
85%
Belasitsa 2+ goals
57%
Belasitsa 3+ goals
30%
Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
69%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
33%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Belasitsa (draw refunded)
70%
Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belasitsa at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.81 · 62 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belasitsa attack 2.47 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.91

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + Belasitsa defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Belasitsa scores more
54%
level
22%
Chavdar Etropole scores more
23%

Belasitsa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Belasitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Belasitsa face Chavdar Etropole (Third League - Southwest)

Third League - Southwest returns with Belasitsa hosting Chavdar Etropole. Match starts April 11, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.