Belasitsa 1–0 Botev Plovdiv II: Result & Stats

Belasitsa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Botev Plovdiv II

8/1/2022

Second League · Round 3Stadion Struma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Belasitsa57%

×Draw25%

Botev Plovdiv II18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelasitsaExpected goals in this matchBotev Plovdiv II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.77

Belasitsa

1.61

Botev Plovdiv II

0.77

Belasitsa creates 109% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 54 away

1.30

creates per match

0.52

1.01

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Belasitsa

1.30

Botev Plovdiv II

0.52

allows per match

Belasitsa

1.01

Botev Plovdiv II

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belasitsa+0.00on par

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belasitsa ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Belasitsa or draw

82%

Belasitsa or Botev Plovdiv II

75%

Draw or Botev Plovdiv II

43%

Winning margin

Belasitsa wins by 2+

31%

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Belasitsa 1+ goals

80%

Belasitsa 2+ goals

48%

Belasitsa 3+ goals

22%

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

54%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

18%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Belasitsa (draw refunded)

76%

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belasitsa at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.01 · 69 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.93 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belasitsa attack 1.30 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.61

Botev Plovdiv II attack 0.52 + Belasitsa defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Belasitsa scores more

57%

level

25%

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

18%

Belasitsa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Belasitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff