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Belasica vs Vardar Negotino — Second League 2019

Belasica
Belasica
FT
4 – 0
Vardar Negotino
Vardar Negotino
2/22/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 17Stadion Blagoj Istatov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Belasica61%
×Draw21%
Vardar Negotino19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belasica
2.07
Vardar Negotino
1.05

Belasica creates 97% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 45 away

creates per match

Belasica
1.54
Vardar Negotino
1.24

allows per match

Belasica
0.87
Vardar Negotino
2.60

finishing

Belasica+0.00on par
Vardar Negotino+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belasica ↓

Vardar Negotino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Belasica or draw
81%
Belasica or Vardar Negotino
79%
Draw or Vardar Negotino
39%

Winning margin

Belasica wins by 2+
37%
Vardar Negotino wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Belasica 1+ goals
87%
Belasica 2+ goals
61%
Belasica 3+ goals
34%
Vardar Negotino 1+ goals
65%
Vardar Negotino 2+ goals
28%
Vardar Negotino 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Belasica (draw refunded)
77%
Vardar Negotino (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belasica at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.87 · 68 matches

Vardar Negotino away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belasica attack 1.54 + Vardar Negotino defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.07

Vardar Negotino attack 1.24 + Belasica defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Belasica scores more
61%
level
21%
Vardar Negotino scores more
19%

Belasica at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Belasica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belasica vs Vardar Negotino

Belasica beat Vardar Negotino 4-0 in Second League on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Blagoj Istatov in Strumica.