Belasica 1–1 Pobeda: Result & Stats | Second League

Belasica

FT

1 – 1

Pobeda

9/22/2024

Second League · Round 5Stadion Blagoj Istatov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Belasica63%

×Draw22%

Pobeda15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelasicaExpected goals in this matchPobeda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.78

Belasica

1.88

Pobeda

0.78

Belasica creates 141% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 67 away

1.54

creates per match

0.69

0.87

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Belasica

1.54

Pobeda

0.69

allows per match

Belasica

0.87

Pobeda

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belasica+0.00on par

Pobeda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belasica ↓

Pobeda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Belasica or draw

85%

Belasica or Pobeda

78%

Draw or Pobeda

37%

Winning margin

Belasica wins by 2+

38%

Pobeda wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Belasica 1+ goals

85%

Belasica 2+ goals

56%

Belasica 3+ goals

29%

Pobeda 1+ goals

54%

Pobeda 2+ goals

18%

Pobeda 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Belasica (draw refunded)

81%

Pobeda (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belasica at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.87 · 68 matches

Pobeda away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.21 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belasica attack 1.54 + Pobeda defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.88

Pobeda attack 0.69 + Belasica defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Belasica scores more

63%

level

22%

Pobeda scores more

15%

Belasica at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Belasica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff