Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Belasica vs Pitu Guli — Second League 2019

Belasica
Belasica
FT
2 – 0
Pitu Guli
Pitu Guli
3/7/2020Second LeagueSecond League · East - 16Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Belasica74%
×Draw16%
Pitu Guli11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belasica
2.56
Pitu Guli
0.86

Belasica creates 198% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 8 away

creates per match

Belasica
1.63
Pitu Guli
0.88

allows per match

Belasica
0.84
Pitu Guli
3.50

finishing

Belasica+0.00on par
Pitu Guli+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belasica ↓

Pitu Guli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Belasica or draw
89%
Belasica or Pitu Guli
84%
Draw or Pitu Guli
26%

Winning margin

Belasica wins by 2+
52%
Pitu Guli wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Belasica 1+ goals
92%
Belasica 2+ goals
72%
Belasica 3+ goals
46%
Pitu Guli 1+ goals
58%
Pitu Guli 2+ goals
21%
Pitu Guli 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Belasica (draw refunded)
87%
Pitu Guli (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belasica at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.84 · 70 matches

Pitu Guli away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belasica attack 1.63 + Pitu Guli defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.56

Pitu Guli attack 0.88 + Belasica defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Belasica scores more
74%
level
16%
Pitu Guli scores more
11%

Belasica at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Belasica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Belasica 2–0 Pitu Guli

Belasica beat Pitu Guli 2-0 in Second League on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Mladost in Strumica.