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Belarus W vs Uzbekistan W — Friendlies Women 2026

Belarus W
Belarus W
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Uzbekistan W
Uzbekistan W
M. Surovtseva 69'
A. Pilipenko 45+1', 43'
V. Belaya 37'
A. Norboyeva 21'
7/14/2023Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Gorodskoy Stadion Liozna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Belarus W59%
×Draw21%
Uzbekistan W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belarus W
2.10
Uzbekistan W
1.16

Belarus W creates 81% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 23 away

creates per match

Belarus W
1.73
Uzbekistan W
0.96

allows per match

Belarus W
1.36
Uzbekistan W
2.48

finishing

Belarus W+0.00on par
Uzbekistan W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belarus W ↓

Uzbekistan W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Belarus W or draw
80%
Belarus W or Uzbekistan W
79%
Draw or Uzbekistan W
41%

Winning margin

Belarus W wins by 2+
36%
Uzbekistan W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Belarus W 1+ goals
88%
Belarus W 2+ goals
62%
Belarus W 3+ goals
35%
Uzbekistan W 1+ goals
69%
Uzbekistan W 2+ goals
32%
Uzbekistan W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Belarus W (draw refunded)
74%
Uzbekistan W (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belarus W at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Uzbekistan W away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belarus W attack 1.73 + Uzbekistan W defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.10

Uzbekistan W attack 0.96 + Belarus W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Belarus W scores more
59%
level
21%
Uzbekistan W scores more
20%

Belarus W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Belarus W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
A. Norboyeva
37'
V. Belaya
43'
A. Pilipenko
45+1'
A. Pilipenko
69'
M. Surovtseva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belarus W vs Uzbekistan W

Belarus W beat Uzbekistan W 4-1 in Friendlies Women on July 14, 2023.

Goals: A. Norboyeva (21'), V. Belaya (37'), A. Pilipenko (43', 45+1'), M. Surovtseva (69').

The match was played at Gorodskoy Stadion Liozna in Liozna.