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Belarus W vs Russia W — Friendlies Women 2026

Belarus W
Belarus W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Russia W
Russia W
A. Shlapakova 83'
V. Belaya 40'
M. Zharkova 63'
D. Basaeva 45+1'
10/10/2022Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Stadyen Traktar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Belarus W37%
×Draw25%
Russia W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belarus W
1.41
Russia W
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 23 away

creates per match

Belarus W
1.73
Russia W
1.48

allows per match

Belarus W
1.36
Russia W
1.09

finishing

Belarus W+0.00on par
Russia W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belarus W ↓

Russia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Belarus W or draw
62%
Belarus W or Russia W
75%
Draw or Russia W
63%

Winning margin

Belarus W wins by 2+
17%
Russia W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Belarus W 1+ goals
76%
Belarus W 2+ goals
41%
Belarus W 3+ goals
17%
Russia W 1+ goals
76%
Russia W 2+ goals
41%
Russia W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Belarus W (draw refunded)
50%
Russia W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belarus W at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Russia W away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belarus W attack 1.73 + Russia W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.41

Russia W attack 1.48 + Belarus W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Belarus W scores more
37%
level
25%
Russia W scores more
38%

Russia W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Russia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
V. Belaya
45+1'
D. Basaeva
63'
M. Zharkova
83'
A. Shlapakova
90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Belarus W 2–2 Russia W

Belarus W and Russia W drew 2-2 in Friendlies Women on October 10, 2022.

Goals: V. Belaya (40'), D. Basaeva (45+1'), M. Zharkova (63'), A. Shlapakova (83').

The match was played at Stadyen Traktar in Minsk.