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Belarus vs Sierra Leone — Friendlies 2026

Belarus
Belarus
CANC
16:00
Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone
6/7/2021FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Stadyen Nyoman Iskusstvennoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Belarus50%
×Draw23%
Sierra Leone27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belarus
1.79
Sierra Leone
1.27

Belarus creates 41% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Belarus
1.36
Sierra Leone
0.54

allows per match

Belarus
2.00
Sierra Leone
2.23

finishing

Belarus+0.00on par
Sierra Leone+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belarus ↓

Sierra Leone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Belarus or draw
73%
Belarus or Sierra Leone
77%
Draw or Sierra Leone
50%

Winning margin

Belarus wins by 2+
27%
Sierra Leone wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Belarus 1+ goals
83%
Belarus 2+ goals
53%
Belarus 3+ goals
26%
Sierra Leone 1+ goals
72%
Sierra Leone 2+ goals
36%
Sierra Leone 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Belarus (draw refunded)
65%
Sierra Leone (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belarus at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

Sierra Leone away — creates 0.54, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belarus attack 1.36 + Sierra Leone defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sierra Leone attack 0.54 + Belarus defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Belarus scores more
50%
level
23%
Sierra Leone scores more
27%

Belarus at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Belarus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Belarus face Sierra Leone (Friendlies)

Friendlies returns with Belarus hosting Sierra Leone. Match starts June 7, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Belarus host Sierra Leone at Stadyen Nyoman Iskusstvennoe pole.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.