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Belarus vs Russia — Friendlies 2026

Belarus
Belarus
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Russia
Russia
F. Chalov 69', 63'
K. Tyukavin 20'
I. Oblyakov 8'
6/7/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stadyen Dynama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Belarus22%
×Draw23%
Russia54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belarus
1.04
Russia
1.77

Russia creates 70% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

creates per match

Belarus
1.36
Russia
1.53

allows per match

Belarus
2.00
Russia
0.73

finishing

Belarus+0.00on par
Russia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belarus ↓

Russia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Belarus or draw
46%
Belarus or Russia
77%
Draw or Russia
78%

Winning margin

Belarus wins by 2+
8%
Russia wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Belarus 1+ goals
65%
Belarus 2+ goals
28%
Belarus 3+ goals
9%
Russia 1+ goals
83%
Russia 2+ goals
53%
Russia 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Belarus (draw refunded)
29%
Russia (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belarus at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

Russia away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belarus attack 1.36 + Russia defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.04

Russia attack 1.53 + Belarus defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Belarus scores more
22%
level
23%
Russia scores more
54%

Russia at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Russia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Aleksey MiranchukRussiaRussia · M
9.2

Match Events

8'
I. Oblyakov↳ Aleksey Miranchuk
20'
K. Tyukavin↳ I. Oblyakov
36'
Valeri Gromyko
46'
M. Kireev← D. Antilevskiy
46'
A. Maksimenko← M. Safonov
59'
V. Malkevich← K. Pechenin
59'
S. Karpovich← V. Gromyko
62'
F. Chalov← K. Tyukavin
62'
I. Sergeev← I. Oblyakov
63'
F. Chalov
68'
A. Kontsevoy← V. Morozov
68'
V. Klimovich← N. Korzun
69'
F. Chalov↳ Aleksey Miranchuk
72'
L. Sadulaev← Aleksey Miranchuk
75'
V. Bocherov← M. Ebong
78'
A. Soldatenkov← D. Kuzyaev
78'
A. Karpukas← I. Diveev

Possession

39%Belarus

Shots

5Belarus

Pass accuracy

47%Belarus

Statistics

BelarusRussia
Overview
39%Possession61%
5Total Shots17
3Corners3
13Fouls9
Shots
5Total Shots17
2On Target7
2Off Target6
1Blocked4
1Inside Box11
4Outside Box6
Passing
39%Possession61%
388Total Passes626
295Accurate Passes535
76%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Belarus vs Russia

Russia beat Belarus 4-0 in Friendlies on June 7, 2024.

Goals: I. Oblyakov (8'), K. Tyukavin (20'), F. Chalov (63', 69').

Russia controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadyen Dynama in Minsk.