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Belarus vs Lithuania — UEFA Nations League 2018

Belarus
Belarus
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Lithuania
Lithuania
Max Ebong 20'
Evgeni Yablonski 5'
11/15/2020UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 5Stadyen Dynama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Belarus57%
×Draw28%
Lithuania15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belarus
1.34
Lithuania
0.54

Belarus creates 148% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Belarus
0.91
Lithuania
0.62

allows per match

Belarus
0.45
Lithuania
1.77

finishing

Belarus+0.00on par
Lithuania+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belarus ↓

Lithuania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Belarus or draw
85%
Belarus or Lithuania
72%
Draw or Lithuania
43%

Winning margin

Belarus wins by 2+
28%
Lithuania wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Belarus 1+ goals
74%
Belarus 2+ goals
39%
Belarus 3+ goals
15%
Lithuania 1+ goals
42%
Lithuania 2+ goals
10%
Lithuania 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Belarus (draw refunded)
79%
Lithuania (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belarus at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Lithuania away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belarus attack 0.91 + Lithuania defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.34

Lithuania attack 0.62 + Belarus defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Belarus scores more
57%
level
28%
Lithuania scores more
15%

Belarus at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Belarus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
Maksim BordachevBelarusBelarus · D
7.9

Match Events

5'
Evgeni Yablonski
20'
Max Ebong↳ Maksim Skavysh
24'
Roman Yuzepchuk
30'
Justas Lasickas
33'
Edvinas Girdvainis
46'
Karolis Laukžemis← Justas Lasickas
55'
Ernestas Veliulis← Donatas Kazlauskas
55'
Gratas Sirgėdas← Tautvydas Eliosius
58'
Ivan Maevskiy← Yuri Kendysh
72'
Ivan Bakhar← Vitali Lisakovich
76'
Daniel Romanovskij← Edgaras Utkus
81'
Vladislav Klimovich← Maksim Skavysh
82'
Dmitri Antilevski← Igor Stasevich
82'
Deimantas Petravičius← Arvydas Novikovas

Possession

39%Belarus

Shots

12Belarus

Pass accuracy

46%Belarus

Statistics

BelarusLithuania
Overview
39%Possession61%
12Total Shots9
7Corners4
19Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots9
4On Target1
5Off Target6
3Blocked2
8Inside Box2
4Outside Box7
Passing
39%Possession61%
361Total Passes549
259Accurate Passes465
72%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
19Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Belarus vs Lithuania

Belarus beat Lithuania 2-0 in UEFA Nations League on November 15, 2020.

Goals: Evgeni Yablonski (5'), Max Ebong (20').

Lithuania controlled possession (61%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadyen Dynama in Minsk.