Belarus 0–4 Israel: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Belarus

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Israel

M. Kna'an 82'

R. Shlomo 36'

R. Safouri 18'

G. Melamed 7'

6/11/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 2Szusza Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Belarus38%

×Draw24%

Israel38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelarusExpected goals in this matchIsrael

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.55

Belarus

1.53

Israel

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.36

creates per match

1.10

2.00

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Belarus

1.36

Israel

1.10

allows per match

Belarus

2.00

Israel

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belarus+0.00on par

Israel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belarus ↓

Israel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Belarus or draw

62%

Belarus or Israel

76%

Draw or Israel

62%

Winning margin

Belarus wins by 2+

18%

Israel wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Belarus 1+ goals

78%

Belarus 2+ goals

45%

Belarus 3+ goals

20%

Israel 1+ goals

79%

Israel 2+ goals

46%

Israel 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Belarus (draw refunded)

49%

Israel (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belarus at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

Israel away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belarus attack 1.36 + Israel defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.53

Israel attack 1.10 + Belarus defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Belarus scores more

38%

level

24%

Israel scores more

38%

Belarus at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Belarus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

18'

36'

41'

46'

D. Antilevskiy← V. Gromyko

46'

S. Karpovich← R. Yuzepchuk

61'

K. Pechenin← D. Levitskiy

61'

V. Morozov← G. Barkovskiy

64'

65'

65'

65'

65'

71'

M. Kna'an← R. Safouri

71'

T. Baribo← G. Melamed

71'

Y. Gerafi← O. Glazer

73'

M. Kasarab← V. Klimovich

80'

F. Lapoukhov← S. Ignatovich

82'

D. Glazer← D. Gropper

82'

M. Kna'an

90'

Evgeni Yablonski

Possession

Shots

Statistics

BelarusIsrael

Overview

44%Possession56%

6Total Shots8

0Corners2

14Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots8

1On Target6

5Off Target1

0Blocked1

Passing

44%Possession56%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1