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Belarus U21 vs Kazakhstan U21 — Friendlies 2026

Belarus U21
Belarus U21
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kazakhstan U21
Kazakhstan U21
M. Mokin 70'
D. Galyata 64'
R. Karimov 26' (pen)
6/8/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalStadion Traktor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Belarus U2175%
×Draw17%
Kazakhstan U218%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belarus U21
2.20
Kazakhstan U21
0.55

Belarus U21 creates 300% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Belarus U21
2.40
Kazakhstan U21
0.50

allows per match

Belarus U21
0.60
Kazakhstan U21
2.00

finishing

Belarus U21+0.00on par
Kazakhstan U21+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belarus U21 ↓

Kazakhstan U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Belarus U21 or draw
92%
Belarus U21 or Kazakhstan U21
83%
Draw or Kazakhstan U21
25%

Winning margin

Belarus U21 wins by 2+
51%
Kazakhstan U21 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Belarus U21 1+ goals
89%
Belarus U21 2+ goals
64%
Belarus U21 3+ goals
37%
Kazakhstan U21 1+ goals
42%
Kazakhstan U21 2+ goals
11%
Kazakhstan U21 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Belarus U21 (draw refunded)
91%
Kazakhstan U21 (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belarus U21 at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Kazakhstan U21 away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belarus U21 attack 2.40 + Kazakhstan U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

Kazakhstan U21 attack 0.50 + Belarus U21 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Belarus U21 scores more
75%
level
17%
Kazakhstan U21 scores more
8%

Belarus U21 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Belarus U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
R. KarimovPenalty
64'
D. Galyata
70'
M. Mokin
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Vitali Pavlov
Manager: Vitali Pavlov
Denis Mamonov
Manager: Denis Mamonov

Match Recap: Belarus U21 vs Kazakhstan U21

Belarus U21 beat Kazakhstan U21 2-1 in Friendlies on June 8, 2026.

Goals: R. Karimov (26' pen), D. Galyata (64'), M. Mokin (70').

The match was played at Stadion Traktor in Minsk.