Belarus U19 W 3–3 Russia U19 W: Result & Stats

Belarus U19 W

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Russia U19 W

K. Guzovskaya 85'

D. Katsynel 71'

D. Protasyuk 41'

A. Karataeva 46'

E. Sergeeva 34'

M. Achoyan 11'

6/30/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Belarus U19 W32%

×Draw22%

Russia U19 W47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belarus U19 WExpected goals in this matchRussia U19 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

2.02

Belarus U19 W

1.63

Russia U19 W

2.02

Russia U19 W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

2.25

creates per match

2.29

1.75

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Belarus U19 W

2.25

Russia U19 W

2.29

allows per match

Belarus U19 W

1.75

Russia U19 W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belarus U19 W+0.00on par

Russia U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belarus U19 W ↓

Russia U19 W →

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Belarus U19 W or draw

53%

Belarus U19 W or Russia U19 W

78%

Draw or Russia U19 W

68%

Winning margin

Belarus U19 W wins by 2+

15%

Russia U19 W wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Belarus U19 W 1+ goals

80%

Belarus U19 W 2+ goals

48%

Belarus U19 W 3+ goals

22%

Russia U19 W 1+ goals

87%

Russia U19 W 2+ goals

60%

Russia U19 W 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Belarus U19 W (draw refunded)

40%

Russia U19 W (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Belarus U19 W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Russia U19 W away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Belarus U19 W attack 2.25 + Russia U19 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Russia U19 W attack 2.29 + Belarus U19 W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Belarus U19 W scores more

32%

level

22%

Russia U19 W scores more

47%

Russia U19 W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Russia U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

34'

41'

46'

71'

85'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff