Belarus U19 W 2–0 Azerbaijan U19 W: Result & Stats

Belarus U19 W

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Azerbaijan U19 W

A. Mikheenko 29'

E. Marchuk 16'

2/4/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Belarus U19 W62%

×Draw19%

Azerbaijan U19 W19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belarus U19 WExpected goals in this matchAzerbaijan U19 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.25

Belarus U19 W

2.38

Azerbaijan U19 W

1.25

Belarus U19 W creates 90% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.25

creates per match

0.75

1.75

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Belarus U19 W

2.25

Azerbaijan U19 W

0.75

allows per match

Belarus U19 W

1.75

Azerbaijan U19 W

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belarus U19 W+0.00on par

Azerbaijan U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belarus U19 W ↓

Azerbaijan U19 W →

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Belarus U19 W or draw

81%

Belarus U19 W or Azerbaijan U19 W

81%

Draw or Azerbaijan U19 W

38%

Winning margin

Belarus U19 W wins by 2+

40%

Azerbaijan U19 W wins by 2+

Team goals

Belarus U19 W 1+ goals

91%

Belarus U19 W 2+ goals

68%

Belarus U19 W 3+ goals

42%

Azerbaijan U19 W 1+ goals

71%

Azerbaijan U19 W 2+ goals

36%

Azerbaijan U19 W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Belarus U19 W (draw refunded)

77%

Azerbaijan U19 W (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Belarus U19 W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Azerbaijan U19 W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Belarus U19 W attack 2.25 + Azerbaijan U19 W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.38

Azerbaijan U19 W attack 0.75 + Belarus U19 W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Belarus U19 W scores more

62%

level

19%

Azerbaijan U19 W scores more

19%

Belarus U19 W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Belarus U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

E. Marchuk

29'

A. Mikheenko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff