Belarus U19 1–0 Greece U19: Result & Stats

Belarus U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Greece U19

11/15/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3Arslan Zeki Demirci Spor Kompleksi - Emir Hotels 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Belarus U1952%

×Draw23%

Greece U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belarus U19Expected goals in this matchGreece U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.17

Belarus U19

1.79

Greece U19

1.17

Belarus U19 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

2.50

creates per match

1.67

0.67

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Belarus U19

2.50

Greece U19

1.67

allows per match

Belarus U19

0.67

Greece U19

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belarus U19+0.00on par

Greece U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belarus U19 ↓

Greece U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Belarus U19 or draw

75%

Belarus U19 or Greece U19

77%

Draw or Greece U19

48%

Winning margin

Belarus U19 wins by 2+

29%

Greece U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Belarus U19 1+ goals

83%

Belarus U19 2+ goals

53%

Belarus U19 3+ goals

26%

Greece U19 1+ goals

69%

Greece U19 2+ goals

33%

Greece U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Belarus U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Greece U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belarus U19 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Greece U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belarus U19 attack 2.50 + Greece U19 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.79

Greece U19 attack 1.67 + Belarus U19 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Belarus U19 scores more

52%

level

23%

Greece U19 scores more

25%

Belarus U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Belarus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belarus U19 vs Greece U19

Belarus U19 beat Greece U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 15, 2023.

The match was played at Arslan Zeki Demirci Spor Kompleksi - Emir Hotels 2 in Side.

Belarus U19 vs Greece U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Belarus U19 vs Greece U19