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Belarus U17 vs Slovakia U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Belarus U17
Belarus U17
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Slovakia U17
Slovakia U17
10/16/2021UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Borisov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Belarus U1742%
×Draw26%
Slovakia U1733%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belarus U17
1.46
Slovakia U17
1.27

Belarus U17 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

Belarus U17
1.27
Slovakia U17
1.00

allows per match

Belarus U17
1.55
Slovakia U17
1.64

finishing

Belarus U17+0.00on par
Slovakia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belarus U17 ↓

Slovakia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Belarus U17 or draw
67%
Belarus U17 or Slovakia U17
74%
Draw or Slovakia U17
58%

Winning margin

Belarus U17 wins by 2+
20%
Slovakia U17 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Belarus U17 1+ goals
77%
Belarus U17 2+ goals
43%
Belarus U17 3+ goals
18%
Slovakia U17 1+ goals
72%
Slovakia U17 2+ goals
36%
Slovakia U17 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Belarus U17 (draw refunded)
56%
Slovakia U17 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belarus U17 at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Slovakia U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belarus U17 attack 1.27 + Slovakia U17 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Slovakia U17 attack 1.00 + Belarus U17 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Belarus U17 scores more
42%
level
26%
Slovakia U17 scores more
33%

Belarus U17 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Belarus U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Belarus U17 0–0 Slovakia U17

Belarus U17 and Slovakia U17 drew 0-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Borisov Arena in Borisov.