Belarus U17 3–1 Scotland U17: Result & Stats

Belarus U17

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Scotland U17

D. Ausiannikau 90+4'

A. Halliwell 61' (OG)

A. Derzhinskiy 45+3'

C. Adamson 78'

10/21/2023

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3Arslan Zeki Demirci Spor Kompleksi - Emir Hotels 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Belarus U1734%

×Draw23%

Scotland U1743%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belarus U17Expected goals in this matchScotland U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.74

Belarus U17

1.53

Scotland U17

1.74

Scotland U17 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

1.27

creates per match

1.93

1.55

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Belarus U17

1.27

Scotland U17

1.93

allows per match

Belarus U17

1.55

Scotland U17

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belarus U17+0.00on par

Scotland U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belarus U17 ↓

Scotland U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Belarus U17 or draw

57%

Belarus U17 or Scotland U17

77%

Draw or Scotland U17

66%

Winning margin

Belarus U17 wins by 2+

16%

Scotland U17 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Belarus U17 1+ goals

78%

Belarus U17 2+ goals

45%

Belarus U17 3+ goals

20%

Scotland U17 1+ goals

82%

Scotland U17 2+ goals

52%

Scotland U17 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Belarus U17 (draw refunded)

44%

Scotland U17 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belarus U17 at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Scotland U17 away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belarus U17 attack 1.27 + Scotland U17 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.53

Scotland U17 attack 1.93 + Belarus U17 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Belarus U17 scores more

34%

level

23%

Scotland U17 scores more

43%

Scotland U17 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Scotland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

S. Zhyvushka

45+3'

A. Derzhinskiy

58'

L. Pirie← L. Pollard

60'

D. Ausiannikau← A. Derzhinskiy

61'

A. HalliwellOwn goal

70'

A. McGinlay← J. McDonald

71'

C. Adamson← C. Penman

76'

A. Stanul← S. Zhivushko

76'

P. Struk← I. Gubarevich

78'

C. Scott← J. Wyllie

78'

C. Adamson

85'

D. Ausiannikau

90'

S. Kazmerchuk← P. Bezrukov

90+4'

D. Ausiannikau

Belarus

Scotland

1

🥅

Halliwell

5

▼

Wyllie

15

McGrath

2

▼

10

16

8

7

▼

Pollard

11

▼

6

9

16

2

18

3

17

7

6

8

▼

Bezrukov

20

▼

Zhivushko

19

⚽

▼

Derzhinsk

21

▼

Gubarevic

Manager: D. Korotkevich

60'▲D. Ausiannikau←▼A. Derzhinskiy

76'▲A. Stanul←▼S. Zhivushko

76'▲P. Struk←▼I. Gubarevich

90'▲S. Kazmerchuk←▼P. Bezrukov

Belarus U17 substitutes

10Ausiannikau4Stanul9Struk14Kazmerchuk15Grabtsevich11Gusev13Mishin1Matysyuk5Kibak

Manager: B. McLaughlin

58'▲L. Pirie←▼L. Pollard

70'▲A. McGinlay←▼J. McDonald

71'▲C. Adamson←▼C. Penman

78'▲C. Scott←▼J. Wyllie

Scotland U17 substitutes

18Pirie17McGinlay14Adamson3Scott13Stevenson4Gillies12Ecrepont20Brannan

Match Recap: Belarus U17 vs Scotland U17

Belarus U17 beat Scotland U17 3-1 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 21, 2023.

Goals: A. Derzhinskiy (45+3'), A. Halliwell (61' o.g.), C. Adamson (78'), D. Ausiannikau (90+4').

The match was played at Arslan Zeki Demirci Spor Kompleksi - Emir Hotels 2 in Side.

Belarus U17 vs Scotland U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Belarus U17 vs Scotland U17