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Békéscsaba II vs Salgótarjáni BTC — NB III - Northeast 2019

Békéscsaba II
Békéscsaba II
FT
3 – 1
Salgótarjáni BTC
Salgótarjáni BTC
9/12/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 7Békéscsaba Utánpótlás Központ centerpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Békéscsaba II46%
×Draw22%
Salgótarjáni BTC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Békéscsaba II
1.90
Salgótarjáni BTC
1.53

Békéscsaba II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 49 away

creates per match

Békéscsaba II
1.89
Salgótarjáni BTC
0.86

allows per match

Békéscsaba II
2.21
Salgótarjáni BTC
1.92

finishing

Békéscsaba II+0.00on par
Salgótarjáni BTC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Békéscsaba II ↓

Salgótarjáni BTC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Békéscsaba II or draw
69%
Békéscsaba II or Salgótarjáni BTC
78%
Draw or Salgótarjáni BTC
54%

Winning margin

Békéscsaba II wins by 2+
26%
Salgótarjáni BTC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Békéscsaba II 1+ goals
85%
Békéscsaba II 2+ goals
56%
Békéscsaba II 3+ goals
29%
Salgótarjáni BTC 1+ goals
78%
Salgótarjáni BTC 2+ goals
45%
Salgótarjáni BTC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Békéscsaba II (draw refunded)
60%
Salgótarjáni BTC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Békéscsaba II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.21 · 38 matches

Salgótarjáni BTC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Békéscsaba II attack 1.89 + Salgótarjáni BTC defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.90

Salgótarjáni BTC attack 0.86 + Békéscsaba II defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Békéscsaba II scores more
46%
level
22%
Salgótarjáni BTC scores more
31%

Békéscsaba II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Békéscsaba II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Békéscsaba II vs Salgótarjáni BTC

Békéscsaba II beat Salgótarjáni BTC 3-1 in NB III - Northeast on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Békéscsaba Utánpótlás Központ centerpálya in Békéscsaba.